Pending division of PLEX into 500 units, its a good time to buy them up now, before the change.

Afterwards its far easier to trade PLEX as x/500 units, rather than in 500 unit blocks as equivalent to now.

With isk? Buy now as fast as you can.
With cash, wait.

Its only going to go up.

I estimate 1.5-1.8 by the autumn.
Maybe even 2bil.

Because they are dumping Aurum as a form of currency and allowing PLEX to be sub-divided and for these sub-divided PLEX to take the place of Aurum there will be increase demand for the new sub-divided PLEX.

There is no need, whatsoever, to manually move PLEX in-game.

It just did... there is a discount the next few days.

My view is that I'm not entirely sure the increased demand for PLEX is going to matter that much in the end. Up until now people would buy Aurum, soon they'll switch over to PLEX, so the increased demand should be offset by increased supply. Of course, there is something going on in markets that allows for asset price bubbles--i.e. when the price of some asset becomes uncoupled from that assets intrinsic value. For example, experimental economics shows that in an experiment where there is an asset that pays out a dividend of $0.24/period and the experiment runs for 9 periods and participants are given various amounts of "cash" and the asset. The initial price of the asset should be $3.60, and it's price should fall from that initial value by $0.24 every turn. In fact, classical/rational expectations indicates there should be no trading at all really. After all, the price of the asset is going to be exactly equal to it's dividend payouts from that point forward (discounting is ignored as it is only 9 periods and there is not much time between periods). Yet in experiments the assets are often traded a prices well below their intrinsic value, then the price rises and overshoots it's intrinsic value at the time, and eventually crashes well before the 15th period--i.e. there is an asset bubble even when there is no uncertainty.

Oh Look! It's this thread again...

Nobody on the CSM did any kind of insider trading. If they did I would be shouting it from the highest mountain tops for all to hear.

CCP DrEyjo no longer works for/with CCP. He accepted the position of rector at H+ísk+¦linn +í Akureyri back in 2014.

The same goes for weapons and ships. The less PLEX they have & more liability , the less power of defense they'll have for their citadel homes.

& this also goes for their moral opportunities.

There are powers that be who know when the oppressed are unfairly denied.


Take away their ships, weapons and ability to defend themselves, in equal values, and they will lose credibility and the power to protect the value of those assets, credit and so on.

Bollocks.

Intelligent analysis

Whether insider info was leaked, or not, is the issue here.

The rapid spike is circumstantial unless it can be linked by evidence to that.

I think the timing and magnitude of the spike warrants some investigation, to see if insider info did prompt it.

Higher price, same volume means increased demand and reduced supply.
Sad thing is that all those arguments were already answered among those 15 pages, and you didn't even bother to read it. You post sth that 50 other ppl already thoroughly discussed and state that the case is closed.

The investigation should be conducted by real men (CCP) with necessary tools, knowledge and skills not some wannabe economics students. So please move on, unless you actually have sth meaningful to add here.

What caused the shift in supply? Again, read the topic. Confidential info that leaked caused the shift in both demand and supply. Ppl who knew that PLEX will be 20% more expensive in a few days decided either to not sell PLEX and wait or to buy PLEX when they are still cheap. Obviously.

The initial decision that all AUR below 1000 will be erased, so ppl below 1000 AUR bought PLEX to get AUR above 1000. Then after CCP changed their mind it was already too late, PLEXes were bought and a new, higher price equilibrium was reached.

It was also established that there was no other reason for the PLEX price to jump at that moment. There was no increase in active accounts number so the theory about rorqual pilots switching to multiboxing hulks was invalid.

Like you would be dumb enough to do it in game... Every spy knows you use exterior comms to do things like that. You lashing out just makes me more suspicious.

Info may have nonetheless been leaked, contributing in some extent to the timing and magnitude of the spike.

For example if info had been leaked to me, and me alone, you would have seen almost zero effect on the plex market, cos I lack capital to act much on the info. But nonetheless, there would have been an info leak.

I would have bought it, not sold it.

If I had trillions, I would have bought PLEX at 1bil as it was to no end.

Having a bank of x/500 units of PLEX is much better than a single PLEX.
Allows me to compete per unit, rather than per lump PLEX.
I can -0.01isk much more efficiently, whilst players fight to get 500 PLEX units for sub.

Also, as a smaller operator, that I can sell only as much PLEX as I need in isk, rather than selling it all at once.

A) Stocksplits are almost always followed by greater net dividends.
I have made a lot of money on that.
(Not to mention an ideal moment to buy up the split stock cheap)

B) The announcement came after the spike.

C) It is far better to have 500 units that comprise a service in total, than a single unit.
Its far easier to sell x/500, than 500, and far easier to find markets that will buy less at a time (albeit at a mark up).

Don't you have a ceterius paribus assumption there? All other things equal, dividend split = stock split.

A) You misread.

I was saying that concurrent to stock splits, company boards very often vote for a greater dividend payout per unit.

B) The spike apparently came concurrent to CSM being informed of the changes launch day.

D) CSM are EVE players. I dont trust them anymore than I do you.
Golden Rule applies.

A) W+ñrtsil+ñ

Plex pays no dividends not did I claim it did.
The point of stock splits and decisions on dividends was pertinent to insider information IRL, as raised by you in the post to which I was responding. You started talking about IRL rather than PLEX, not I. I simply responded to that.


B) The spike coincided with the time that CSMs apparently where told the change would be implemented.
The market did not know about it.

D) No "villianization". Just a call for investigation of whether CSM are leaking information.

This isnt about CSMs having taken market action on PLEX as a result of what they knew.

Its about the possibility that information may have been leaked by CSM.

Do you see the difference?

The timing of the spike is suspect.

Reload your page and read the rest of my post.

If you and I have the same insider info, and the same certain prediction of how the market will react, we will take the same action.

There is no "cancelling out".
We would make the same choice of action (excluding you perhaps being an idiot and making the wrong choice).

Furthermore, both of us will have acted well before the market reacts, or even has cause to react, to the impending change our insider info makes us privy to in advance of it happening.

No I get that, but the dividend is not solely a function of the number of shares. So the question is, are stock splits correlated with things that tend to increase dividends.

Comments like this just encourage me even more that Im following the smoke to the fire.

Ill respond to the rest tomorrow.

Interesting. When the price is higher the volume is lower. In fact, it looks as if the price movements are primarily supply driven unless I'm mistaken. For there to be an increase in price and a decrease in volume traded, suggests an inward shift of the supply function. Looks like there might be a lag effect as well.

If my conjecture is right, then I am having an even harder time fitting this into any sort of conspiracy to make ISK out of this.